It is early Sunday morning, and I have just finished watching a lacklustre Stormers side getting tanked by the Sharks at home.
In my previous post on the RugbyJourney, we introduced a piece digressing on the Sharks showing of promise in #supeRUG, with their lack of fulfillment, ending with a potential scenario of what the future may look like in the remaining weeks of #supeRUG 2012 – in the South African Conference.
It just so happens that what we digressed about at the end of Week 14, has now come to fruition, which makes this section required reading as we head into Week 15; the final weekend before the International window breaks in.
Therefore, for your reading pleasure, I will reproduce. NOW.
South African Conference. It’s a #supeRUG
And I Quote.
IF the Sharks can do the business over the Stormers at home [and they did], let’s assume they take 4 points and the Stormers take 1 point, in what should be a tight fixture between teams that really don’t like each other. This will take the Stormers to the half century mark; 50. The Bulls will stay on 48, but the big movers will be the Sharks, moving on up to 45.
After Week 14 - 50. 48. 45.
Next weekend, this young Stormers side that has taken each challenge in their stride will, again, travel away to another warm place for travelling sides; the Bulls are returning home, feeling a little blue for their efforts in NZ. This is where the Sharks will need some help, but it is reasonable to expect that the Bulls will take 4 points out of this match. Considering their tough and close time in NZ, this Bulls side will know this is their opportunity, particularly if the Sharks keep them very close, today.
IF this becomes more than my very small talk, the Bulls will move 52, the Stormers could well add another BP, and move to 51, with the Sharks away to the Lions offering the potential for 4 +1; putting them on 50.
After Week 15 - 52.51.50.
Then. IT. IS. ALL. ON.
A little absurdity comes into the picture, as an International window opens, providing a little d[r] aft.
However, men reading this piece, please use both sides of your brain, as the art of the International, should not sway your thinking about what happens next in #supeRUG, with three weeks left, before the playoffs.
The Stormers have the Lions in Capetown in Week 16; the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in Week 17, and the Rebels back in Capetown in Week 18. One would expect this to be a successful time, although the Cheetahs have been known.
The Bulls have the Cheetahs in Week 16 at Loftus and the Lions at Loftus in Week 18; two wins, one would expect.
The Sharks have the Bye in Week 16, so their side has an extended break and the Cheetahs in Durban in Week 18. One should feel confident about both results.
Assuming all the sides follow through, there is one fixture that I have missed - WEEK 17 – Sharks v Bulls in Durban. We are living in the realms that this could be the fixture that decides the South African Conference. If the Sharks are able to take 4 points, and the Bulls grab 1 losing BP, impossible is nearing nothing.
Forget the argument that the Sharks have been too inconsistent. They will need to be thoroughly, to execute this effect, when it really counts. This also explains and underscores why this must be a day of destiny in Durban.
IF the previous scenario comes true, the South African Conference reads - STORMERS 63. SHARKS 62. BULLS 61.
Well that was a flat finish for the Sharks; second again!
If you are a little confused as to how this helps the Sharks win the South African Conference, we need to focus on the Bonus Points factor.
 In my previous scenario, I have given the Stormers a losing BP against both the Sharks and the Bulls in Weeks 14 and 15 – no guarantee; meaning they could finish on as low as, 61. I have also given the Bulls a losing BP against the Sharks in Week 17. Both these contexts could factor into the equation with what happens, in the next insight.
 The 4-try BP. The Stormers have struggled in the try-scoring stakes in 2011, so this may not intersect. The Bulls have been better, particularly at Loftus. Having the Cheetahs and Lions, in two of the final three rounds, means they could add two more points to their above total, moving it to 63. If the Sharks can do the business at the Lions in Week 15 with 5, it could well come down to Week 18 against the Cheetahs. If they gain a 4-try BP in this fixture, they could also move to 63.
We won’t confuse the issue any more, if teams are tied on points, this far out.
So many scenarios!
What is the Point?
Two. This #supeRUG season in a South African Conference is really only beginning. Today, it must start with the Sharks.
And; it did.
Can’t wait for Bulls v Stormers, next weekend, at Loftus.
Looks like another early Sunday morning in New Zealand.
What Say You?
Shooting from the Lip